Investing $2,000 To Grade MLB Top Prospect Cards (Part 1)
In this series, we will be following an actionable strategy to buy, sell, and grade cards for some of the top MLB prospects for the 2026 season.
This first article will look at the players we’re targeting, the specific cards we want to buy, and the price points that will be profitable to grade them. The intention is to hold these cards for about 4-6 months (while they are being graded), see an increase in value (hopefully), then sell for profit.
To do this, Baseball Scoops will be joining me as a guest writer (check out his newsletter if you haven’t already)! Baseball Scoops will be breaking down 4 of his favorite players to invest in right now, while I will be breaking down the math behind the investment.
Between now and Part 2 of this series, I will be investing around $2,000 into the cards outlined in this post. Part 2 will then outline what I bought and the strategies I used to buy it. Part 3 will outline the grading results and the final profitability.
Here’s a roadmap of this series:
Part 1: Identifying the Prospects and Which Cards to Buy
Part 2: A Breakdown of What We Bought
Part 3: Grading and Profitability Results
And one last note. In order to successfully grade and resell for profit, your grading results need to be very good. Here’s a couple guides that can help you achieve this:
So with that said, let’s look at the prospects.
Top Prospect to Invest In — Baseball Scoops
Konnor Griffin
Pittsburgh Pirates, #1 Overall Prospect per MLB.com
What Roman Anthony means to the Red Sox, Konnor Griffin means to the Pirates. He is their top hitting prospect and for a team that struggles offensively, his success would be a breath of fresh air. This young man has the potential to be a generational talent for the Bucos.
Griffin has ascended quickly through the minors, reaching Double-A in 2025. Combined across all levels, he slashed .333/.415/.527 with a .941 OPS. Hitting 21 home runs and 94 RBIs is absurd production for a 19 year old. Griffin has everything. Speed, raw power, and the ability to change any game. The shortstop will have every chance to make the opening day roster, so buy stock now.
JJ Wetherholt
St. Louis Cardinals, #5 Overall Prospect per MLB.com
This might be my favorite prospect coming into the season. I’ve been high on Wetherholt since his college playing days and even thought he had a chance to get called up last season. Given the Cardinals rebuild, Wetherholt should have a strong shot to make the opening day roster.
The Cardinals were patient with him and development was key in 2025. He split time between both Double-A and Triple-A and had roughly equal plate appearances at each level. Combined between the two, he slashed .305/.421/.510 with a .931 OPS and 154 WRC+. He hit 17 home runs, with ten coming in Triple-A. Wetherholt is a hard hitting machine and would be a great power bat for the Cardinals. He has a good chance to win NL Rookie of the Year in 2026 if he does get the call.
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers, #2 Overall Prospect per MLB.com
The farm system is deep with the Tigers. While they have plenty of depth at every position, McGonigle can push the envelope and make a case for himself as the top guy. If he does have a strong Spring Training, he will give the staff every reason to keep him in the big leagues. If not, it’s only a matter of time until he gets there.
This is a player that makes good contact, gets on base, and brings an element of speed and power, giving him a high floor as a player. He tore through Single-A last season, with a whopping 1.110 OPS in High-A. McGonigle reached Double-A and still thrived, hitting .254 with a .919 OPS and 162 WRC+. The sky is the limit and a strong season could see him similarly rip apart the Triple-A level. McGonigle is scratching the surface and his bat making the Tigers is only a matter of time.
Leo De Vries
Athletics, #3 Overall Prospect per MLB.com
Leo De Vries was a highly touted prospect in the Padres organization, only to be moved in the big blockbuster trade for Mason Miller. The 19 year old shortstop is extremely athletic, bringing power to the plate, while having an element of speed to his game.
Once he was acquired he immediately was bumped up to Double-A. In his time there, De Vries slashed .281/.359/.551 with a .910 OPS and 144 wRC+. All year long he kept his strikeout rate below 20% and still drew his walks. He immediately thrived, and if things continue to progress, he should be a candidate for Triple-A. It’s only a matter of time before he joins what’s a very good young core in Sacramento and soon to be Las Vegas.
Identifying Which Cards to Buy — 760cards
Now that we’ve identified the players to invest in, we need to look at a strategy to buy, grade, and sell their cards profitably.
We are going to look for Bowman Chrome 1st Autos, which are the first professionally licensed autographed baseball cards for each of these players. We find that these cards tend to have solid Gem Rates and Multiples, which is a key to strong grading profitability. You can find a breakdown of this here.
In total, we’ve graded 55 Bowman Chrome Prospect/Draft cards (from the 2019-2025 sets), and received 36 PSA 10s — good for a 65.5% PSA 10 rate. These are sets that we have done very well on historically.
Now let’s look specifically at the average Gem Rates on the 2024 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto set and the 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto set:
2024 BC Draft Auto: 50.6%
2025 BC Prospect Auto: 39.8%
I’m actually a bit surprised that the 2025 set is as low as it is. Usually these Bowman Chrome cards have fairly consistent centering with sharp corners. The surfaces are sturdy and not prone to indentations, although they can scratch easily.
Looking at the 2025 Bowman Prospect cards specifically, it seems they are often off-centered, mainly with the top/bottom centering being off. I’ve also noticed the back corners get dinged very easily. We will look out for these things specifically when buying these.
And one final note. We aim for a 25% Expected Return on Investment for cards over $200, or a $45 Expected Profit on cards less than $200. We’ll do some math below to determine what prices we will be able to pay for each of these cards. For more on this, check out our Complete Guide to Expected Value here.
Now let’s get into the cards.
2024 Konnor Griffin Bowman Chrome Draft Auto #CPAKG
Market Values
PSA 10 Value: $1,150
PSA 9 Value: $580
Gem Rate: 58.8%
Expected Value
PSA Grading Service: Value Plus ($44.99 initial cost)
EV Before Fees: $1,150 x 58.8% + $580 x 41.2% = $915
Expected Grading Cost: $44.99 + $30 x 58.8% + $15 = $78
Expected Selling Fees (11%): $915 x 11% = $101
Expected Value: $915 - $78 - $101 = $736
Target Purchase Price
Max Price to Pay (for 25% ROI): $736 / 1.25 = $589
Raw Card Value: $550 to $650
This was actually a very tough card to value, as it seems to have really spiked over the last month or so, probably in response to increasing hype around Konnor Griffin as the #1 overall prospect. With that said, we will be looking for gradable copies of this card for just under $600. I’ll also be keeping a close eye on this market to see where it settles.
The 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Konnor Griffin Autos will also be a lower priced alternative. We will be targeting those as well.
2025 JJ Wetherholt Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto #CPAJW
Market Values
PSA 10 Value: $500
PSA 9 Value: $225
Gem Rate: 42.3%
Expected Value
PSA Grading Service: Value Plus ($44.99 initial cost)
EV Before Fees: $500 x 42.3% + $225 x 57.7% = $341
Expected Grading Cost: $44.99 + $8 = $53
Expected Selling Fees (13%): $341 x 13% = $44
Expected Value: $341 - $53 - $44 = $244
Target Purchase Price
Max Price to Buy (for 25% ROI): $244 / 1.25 = $195
Raw Card Value: $150 to $225
Like the other prospects, Wetherholt seems to be up a bit over the past few weeks. I would assume that’s mainly just hype building as the baseball season approached. In general, I think finding a couple copies of this card for around $195 is very attainable.
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Kevin McGonigle Auto #CPAKM
Market Values
PSA 10 Value: $675
PSA 9 Value: $300
Gem Rate: 51.0%
Expected Value
PSA Grading Service: Value Plus ($44.99 initial cost)
EV Before Fees: $675 x 51.0% + $300 x 49.0% = $491
Expected Grading Cost: $44.99 + $15 x 51.0% + $10 = $63
Expected Selling Fees (12.5%): $491 x 12.5% = $61
Expected Value: $491 - $63 - $61 = $367
Target Purchase Price
Max Price to Buy (for 25% ROI): $367 / 1.25 = $294
Raw Card Value: $250 to $375
Looking at the numbers, the ungraded McGonigle cards have quite a large value range. I think it’s going to be tough to find them for under $300, which means I might have to pay a bit more than we usually would to get this. Still, this is a very polished top 5 MLB prospect, and probably worth taking a shot on.
We will also look at parallel cards as other options to get some exposure.
2024 Leo De Vries Bowman Chrome Draft Auto #CPALD
Market Values
PSA 10 Value: $380
PSA 9 Value: $170
Gem Rate: 44.8%
Expected Value
PSA Grading Service: Value ($27.99 initial cost)
EV Before Fees: $380 x 44.8% + $170 x 55.2% = $264
Expected Grading Cost: $27.99 + $7 = $35
Expected Selling Fees (13%): $264 x 13% = $34
Expected Value: $264 - $35 - $34 = $195
Target Purchase Price
Max Price to Buy (for $45 profit): $195 - $45 = $150
Raw Card Value: $150 to $210
Looking at the Expected Value on this card, I think we’re going to struggle to buy any for this series. That’s unfortunate because I like De Vries as a prospect and think that the Athletics have an exciting young core of players (and hopefully will spend more money after the move to Vegas).
I’ll also note that I’m using a Value level submission for this card. This just means that the turnaround time for this one will be slower than the others, while grading costs will be cheaper. This is technically an option for all the cards we’ve looked at (except maybe Konnor Griffin), but we generally avoid this on higher value cards.
Overall, I’m not certain we will buy any of this card in Part 2 of this series. I will try to target the refractor cards that are worth a bit more to get some exposure. Generally, cards that are a higher in value tend to be more profitable to grade (I’ll be writing an article explaining this next week).
Preparing for Part 2 and Beyond
I think from here we have a very clear roadmap. I’ve created an eBay filter to specifically search for these cards (more on that in Part 2) and have been looking for them specifically in auctions as well. I’m also willing to buy them directly from subscribers if anyone is interested in selling.
After buying the cards, I’m going to send them to PSA. Overall, I expect it will take about 6 months to find all the cards, buy them, have them graded with PSA, then sell them. This will give the prospects some time to play, and we will see if their values increase or decrease during this time.
Part 3 will break down the final results. The plan is to bring Baseball Scoops to discuss how the prospects performed while we waited and update us on his outlook on all of them. I will then discuss grading results, profitability, and returns on investment.
Anyway, that’s all for now. I’m really looking forward to all 3 parts of this series, and I want to give a big shoutout again to Baseball Scoops for helping out! And if you’re new here, don’t forget to subscribe if you liked this post.
Thanks for reading!
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