The Curious Case of All Aces (Shohei Ohtani Market Update)
We can't stop buying this one 2023 Shohei Ohtani card.
Shohei Ohtani cards are continuing to rise, as Ohtani hype seems to grow by the day as he gets compared to the all time legends of baseball. Given his popularity, Ohtani has been one of the best cards to grade over the last few years, and his market is one of the most important to stay up to date on.
This post will update the values of some of our favorite Ohtani cards to grade, while adding a new one to the mix (that we are buying tons of). You can also find the link to our last Shohei Ohtani Market Update here.
Looking at CardLadder’s Shohei Ohtani Index, we can see that Ohtani’s market is up a whopping 22.04% over the last month.
We generally focus on the rookie cards, but we’re now specifically targeting his 2023 All Aces card as well. This one stands out for having abnormally large Expected Profitability right now, while admittedly being one of the stranger cards on the market right now for a variety of reasons.
We’ll discuss this, as well as some of our other favorites to grade right now, including Bowman Chrome and Topps Chrome rookie cards. Let’s get into it.
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Top Shohei Ohtani Cards To Grade Now
Analysis based on Expected Value (EV). Read the full EV tutorial here.
Expected Value = PSA 10 Value x Gem Rate + PSA 9 Value x (100% - Gem Rate) - Grading Costs - Selling Fees
The Rise Of All Aces
1. 2023 Shohei Ohtani Topps All Aces #AA11
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $315
PSA 10 Value | $1,275
PSA 9 Value | $450
Gem Rate | 63.6%
Profitability
PSA Submission Tier | Value Plus
Expected Value | $797.66
Expected Profit | $482.66
Expected ROI | 153.2%
Available For Purchase (eBay)
Notes: This card has seen a meteoric rise over the last few months, leading to Expected Profitability that is far higher than any other card currently on the market (that I know of).
Something has to give, as this isn’t a sustainable spot to be. Eventually, card graders will bid the raw value of this card higher until Expected Profit falls, or PSA 10 values will fall, or some combination of the two will happen. My best bet is we’re going to see raw prices rise to catch up sooner rather than later, but we’ll see graded prices fall over the next few months (unless Ohtani starts the season hot, in which case we might just keep going up).
The market dynamics are also interesting. This card was mass produced in 2023, and there is a lot on the market right now. There are 5-10 PSA 10 copies and about 30 raw copies selling every day. That’s a ton of supply for a non-rookie card to be demanding prices like this. For more on this specifically, I recommend giving this article by Slabsquatch Analytics a quick read.
That said, with Expected Profitability at well over 100%, I’m willing to take a risk and buy as many of these as I can find in gradable condition. Even if the market falls by 50%, these will ultimately still be profitable if you can achieve 60% gem rates on your submissions.
And for some final thoughts, quality control on these doesn’t seem to be great in spite of the high average Gem Rate. Be especially careful of jagged back edges and corner chipping.
Bowman Chrome Is Still King
2. 2018 Shohei Ohtani Bowman Chrome #1
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $1,950
PSA 10 Value | $4,700
PSA 9 Value | $1,950
Gem Rate | 56.0%
Profitability
PSA Submission Tier | Express
Expected Value | $2,877.00
Expected Profit | $927.00
Expected ROI | 47.5%
Available For Purchase (eBay)
Notes: This is not as high margin as the All Aces card, but is still a good target and a good way to invest a large amount of money in a single card. Investing in expensive cards is great for reselling, as it helps you to scale as long as you can still make your target ROI.
We’ve talked about this card extensively in the past, but these grade well as long as you submit well centered copies.
Topps Chrome Keeps Rising
Notes: I’ll touch on all the Topps Chrome cards here instead of leaving individual notes for each.
Each of these grade well and aren’t prone to flaws despite being almost a decade old. They all have been consistently rising for what feels like 2 years now, and currently have Expected ROI in the 50-70% range. As a reminder, we generally target a minimum of 25%.
Going a little deeper on Gem Rates… while 2 of these have Gem Rates above 80%, we rarely project for cards we are purchasing to have greater than a 70% chance of grading as a PSA 10. There’s just too many unknowns from buying a card online.
3. 2018 Shohei Ohtani Topps Chrome #150
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $435
PSA 10 Value | $900
PSA 9 Value | $420
Gem Rate | 87.5%
Profitability
PSA Submission Tier | Value Plus
Expected Value | $662.50
Expected Profit | $227.50
Expected ROI | 52.3%
Available For Purchase (eBay)
4. 2018 Shohei Ohtani Topps Chrome #HMT32
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $365
PSA 10 Value | $860
PSA 9 Value | $365
Gem Rate | 85.0%
Profitability
PSA Submission Tier | Value Plus
Expected Value | $615.53
Expected Profit | $250.53
Expected ROI | 68.6%
Available For Purchase (eBay)
5. 2018 Shohei Ohtani Topps Chrome #HMT1
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $225
PSA 10 Value | $640
PSA 9 Value | $240
Gem Rate | 62.5%
Profitability
PSA Submission Tier | Value Plus
Expected Value | $361.25
Expected Profit | $136.25
Expected ROI | 60.6%
Available For Purchase (eBay)
BCG Auction Tracker Updates
Our eBay auction tracking tool is meant to help you find the top raw cards to buy and grade for profit.
This week, we’ve updated our auction tracking tool to include the previously mentioned Shohei Ohtani All Aces card, as well as Kevin McGonigle, Jesus Made, and Leo De Vries. All 3 are surging as the baseball season gets underway, with McGonigle leading the way after a fast start to the season.
You can try the tool, which shows the eBay auctions ending soonest for all the players we’re targeting, at the link below.