The Most Profitable Set of 2025: Donruss Downtown Football
Looking at which top 2025 NFL rookies you should be buying.
Right now, 2025 Donruss Downtown Football is one of our favorite products to buy. The main reason for this is super high average Gem Rates, with certain cards as high as 90%, which is driving above average profitability for this set.
This post will look through some of the top rookies from the 2025 class, and assess their profitability to buy and grade. We’ll give a verdict of: Strong Buy, Buy, Weak Buy, or Pass. Note that we target Expected ROIs of 25% of higher.
Lastly, there’s a couple technical things in the EV calculation that I want to highlight before we get started:
We Applied a 10% Market Adjustment: We assumed that markets would fall by about 10% between the time we purchased the cards and the time we will sell them. This is something we commonly do for newer sets. You can read about this here.
PSA 9 Values are tricky: Some of these cards only have 2 or 3 PSA 9 sales, and in some cases the values were very high relative to raw prices and PSA 10 sales. In these cases, we adjusted PSA 9 values down a bit.
*You can find our Complete Guide to Expected Value here.
1. 2025 Jaxson Dart Donruss Downtown #14
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $950
PSA 10 Value | $1,780
PSA 9 Value | $970
Gem Rate | 80.0%
Profitability
Expected Value | $1,149.49
Expected Profit | $199.49
Expected ROI | 21.0%
Verdict: Weak Buy
Notes: I honestly thought we’d see more Jaxson Dart hype this offseason, especially after the Giants hired John Harbaugh. As it stands, this is not a card that I’m targeting specifically, but I’ll buy gradable copies if I see them for around $900.
2. 2025 Tyler Shough Donruss Downtown #19
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $550
PSA 10 Value | $1,400
PSA 9 Value | $650
Gem Rate | 75.0%
Profitability
Expected Value | $897.69
Expected Profit | $347.69
Expected ROI | 63.2%
Verdict: Strong Buy
Notes: This one of my biggest targets right now. We’ve bought quite a few of these, making Tyler Shough one of our biggest player investments right now. I’m fine with that during the offseason, where the risk of owning a year 2 QB is relatively low. For now, I just can’t pass up the 63.2% Expected ROI.
3. 2025 Cam Ward Donruss Downtown #12
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $600
PSA 10 Value | $1,100
PSA 9 Value | $600
Gem Rate | 80.9%
Profitability
Expected Value | $728.69
Expected Profit | $128.69
Expected ROI | 21.4%
Verdict: Weak Buy
Notes: Similar to Jaxson Dart, I thought we might see more hype for Cam Ward after the Titans brought in Robert Saleh as head coach. As the market currently stands, we’re not necessarily targeting this card, but I’ll buy when/if I see them available for $500 to $550.
4. 2025 Shedeur Sanders Donruss Downtown #17
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $550
PSA 10 Value | $1,000
PSA 9 Value | $550
Gem Rate | 85.7%
Profitability
Expected Value | $669.73
Expected Profit | $119.73
Expected ROI | 21.8%
Verdict: Weak Buy
Notes: I’m not exactly sold on Sanders as an NFL quarterback, but my best guess is that Cleveland will roll him out in week 1 next year. Similar to the other quarterbacks above (other than Shough), I’ll buy these if I can find them a bit under market, in the $400 to $475 range.
5. 2025 Ashton Jeanty Donruss Downtown #11
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $400
PSA 10 Value | $860
PSA 9 Value | $450
Gem Rate | 75.9%
Profitability
Expected Value | $534.27
Expected Profit | $134.27
Expected ROI | 33.6%
Verdict: Buy
Notes: The math on Jeanty is very solid here. I’ll buy these at market value whenever I see gradable copies.
6. 2025 Tetairoa McMillan Donruss Downtown #15
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $430
PSA 10 Value | $830
PSA 9 Value | $415
Gem Rate | 90.0%
Profitability
Expected Value | $553.07
Expected Profit | $123.07
Expected ROI | 28.6%
Verdict: Buy
Notes: This one is somewhere between a buy and a weak buy. I’ll take these at market value if they are very clean, but I don’t like my EV calculation relying on a 90% chance of a gem rate. With that said, even at something more like 75% or 80%, this is a decent buy at market price.
7. 2025 Travis Hunter Donruss Downtown #13
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $450
PSA 10 Value | $790
PSA 9 Value | $475
Gem Rate | 76.1%
Profitability
Expected Value | $497.71
Expected Profit | $47.71
Expected ROI | 10.6%
Verdict: Pass
Notes: The 10.6% Expected ROI just doesn’t cut it for me. If I can find these for under $400, that’s where I start considering.
8. 2025 Omarion Hampton Donruss Downtown #16
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $340
PSA 10 Value | $690
PSA 9 Value | $350
Gem Rate | 87.2%
Profitability
Expected Value | $441.64
Expected Profit | $101.64
Expected ROI | 29.9%
Verdict: Buy
Notes: I have similar thoughts on this one as the Tet McMillan card above, but when push comes to shove, if I see a gradable copy for $340 I’ll buy it.
9. 2025 Abdul Carter Donruss Downtown #20
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $220
PSA 10 Value | $525
PSA 9 Value | $300
Gem Rate | 79.5%
Profitability
Expected Value | $327.03
Expected Profit | $107.03
Expected ROI | 48.6%
Verdict: Buy
Notes: I was very surprised by the math on this one. I’ve bought a few Abdul Carter Downtown’s now, which is unusual because we almost never buy defensive players. But we will buy at 48.6% Expected ROI anytime.
10. 2025 Matthew Golden Donruss Downtown #18
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $320
PSA 10 Value | $675
PSA 9 Value | $350
Gem Rate | 73.6%
Profitability
Expected Value | $399.30
Expected Profit | $79.30
Expected ROI | 24.8%
Verdict: Weak Buy
Notes: This is another one I was surprised about. Golden didn’t have a particularly good rookie season, but still these cards are a pretty decent buy right now. I’ve gotten a couple of these for around $300.
question! if you had multiple cards and grading do you send as one package or spread out so there is no anchoring or bias?