Why We Spent $2,600 For One Victor Wembanyama Card
Breaking down the math on our most expensive purchase ever and a couple other risky purchases.
Every week, we spend thousands of dollars on cards to grade for profit, often with limited pictures or information about the actual cards we’re buying. This post is going to walk you guys through a few of the purchases we made last week, and why we’re willing to take real risks.
You’ll also notice that every one of the cards presented below are from our Market Update posts. We eat our own cooking.
You can find the exact cards discussed in this post by using our eBay Search Filter. This post contains affiliate links — thanks for supporting The Business of Card Grading!
Reviewing Our Recent Purchases
Analysis based on Expected Value (EV). Read the full EV tutorial here.
Expected Value = PSA 10 Value x Gem Rate + PSA 9 Value x (100% - Gem Rate) - Grading Costs - Selling Fees
1. 2017 Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge #56
Notes: As you can see these pictures leave a lot to be desired. There are a few reasons we were willing to buy this card regardless.
The seller’s profile checked out. He didn’t have any graded cards on his profile, and he said that he pulled this card himself and put it directly in this case. We prefer buying from small sellers who don’t grade cards themselves.
The Expected Value math on this card is really good. As you can see in our most recent Market Update this is one of the most profitable cards on the market right now. Based on current market values and average gem rates, we calculated the Expected Value of this card to be $351.60. We bought the card for $135. The upside here is well worth the risk.
2. Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex #231
Notes: This one is a bit different than the Judge above because in this case, we bought a card with noticeable issues. The left/right centering is visibly off on the front and the card has a bend (although this usually has limited effect on grading from our experience). There are two important points here.
We bought this for $435, which is below market value for a NM+ raw card. This means our downside is low if we decide to sell it without grading.
The EV math on this card is very strong.
I’m going to show the EV calculation below but note that for this card, we will use a Gem Rate of 35% instead of the average Gem Rate of 56%. We are assuming this card has a lower probability of grading a PSA 10 as compared to the average copy submitted to PSA.
Values & Gem Rate
Purchase Price | $434.78
PSA 10 Value | $1,225
PSA 9 Value | $490
Gem Rate | 35.0%
Profitability
PSA Submission Tier | Value Plus
Expected Value | $604.67
Expected Profit | $169.89
Expected ROI | 39.1%
In short, the upside is high and the downside is low. This is the kind of purchase that makes me lose a bit of sleep, but we stuck to our process on this one.
3. 2023 Victor Wembanyama Obsidian Black Color Blast #3
Notes: At $2,600, this is actually the most expensive raw card we’ve bought so far. And as you can see, the pictures leave a lot to be desired. But like the Judge from above, we bought this for two reasons.
We messaged the seller and he confirmed it was pack fresh and clean.
We got a great deal.
I’ll walk you through the math on this one. This card has very little sales volume so I tried to make conservative estimates for market values.
Values & Gem Rate
Purchase Price | $2,600.29
PSA 10 Value | $7,000
PSA 9 Value | $3,000
Gem Rate | 58.8%
Profitability
PSA Submission Tier | Super Express
Expected Value | $4,264.00
Expected Profit | $1,663.71
Expected ROI | 64.0%
When even conservative estimates suggest a card is a screaming buy, you have to pull the trigger.
Takeaways
Buying cards to grade always implies some level of risk, you never know exactly what you’re going to get but there are lots of things you can do to maximize your results. Following the Expected Value math, checking your sellers carefully (and asking questions when you need to), and buying with significant margins are all key. If you follow these steps, you can make profit even when pictures and information are limited.
Interesting Auctions Ending In Next 24 Hours:
Here are some auctions ending today of cards/players we have been targeting (including cards not discussed in this post). You can find our recent Market Updates here.
And here is the filter we used to find these listings: