The 5 Most Profitable Caleb Williams Cards To Grade This Offseason
Looking at 5 profitable card ranging from a $130 Prizm Silver to an $800 Optic Downtown.
Caleb Williams is one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL, and we’re seeing his card values rise a bit recently, which is one of the triggers we use to identify that a card may be profitable to grade. For example, his PSA 10 Prizm Silver rookie card is up 32.3% over the last 90 days, likely as a result of his playoff win this postseason. With this in mind, this post is going to take a look at some of his most profitable cards you can grade during the offseason.
Generally, we like buying cards during the offseason for two reasons.
There’s virtually no risk of injury or poor performance.
By the time the cards come back from grading, we’re often closer to the regular season giving us a good sell window.
Note that while Caleb is a solid target for us right now, there’s also plenty of cards that aren’t profitable right now. This post will focus on the ones that are.
We’re going to present the cards from cheapest to most expensive. We’ll also be evaluating everything in terms of Expected Value. The formula is written out below, but you can find our full guide to EV here.
Expected Value = PSA 10 Value x Gem Rate + PSA 9 Value x (100% - Gem Rate) - Grading Costs - Selling Fees
And here are some other helpful resources before we start:
1. Prizm Silver #301
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $130
PSA 10 Value | $750
PSA 9 Value | $140
Gem Rate | 19.3%
Profitability
Expected Value | $184.05*
Expected Profit | $54.05
Expected ROI | 41.58%
Notes: This is definitely a solid card to target, but note that these are a tough grade. There’s a reason this card has a gem rate of 19.3%. This entire set is prone to surface dimples (which can still gem), poor centering, and back corner and edge damage.
*Included 15% PSA 8 probability in EV calculation as this card is more prone to low grades than the others.
2. Topps Chrome Aqua Geometric Auto /199
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $450
PSA 10 Value | $1,100
PSA 9 Value | $500
Gem Rate | 58.0%
Profitability
Expected Value | $681.54
Expected Profit | $231.54
Expected ROI | 51.45%
Notes: We’ve graded quite a few of these and generally done pretty well. They’re sturdy cards and not prone to corner or edge wear. Make sure you understand the centering since these are not standard borders. The card shown in the picture above is what perfect centering should look like.
Also note that there are a few different /199 variations, including Aqua Geometric, Aqua Sonar, and Aqua. We find these all have roughly the same market values, though Gem Rates vary.
3. Obsidian Black Stained Glass #11
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $600
PSA 10 Value | $1,250
PSA 9 Value | $535
Gem Rate | 71.3%
Profitability
Expected Value | $852.52
Expected Profit | $252.52
Expected ROI | 42.09%
Notes: This is a great set to grade and isn’t prone to any real issues. We like to buy these when we can. The only downside to this card is there’s just not a ton of them available on the market.
4. Donruss Downtown! #21
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $750
PSA 10 Value | $1,700
PSA 9 Value | $800
Gem Rate | 47.7%
Profitability
Expected Value | $966.38
Expected Profit | $216.38
Expected ROI | 28.85%
Notes: The 2024 Donruss Downtown set was a really tough grade, with a lot of these cards being closer to 20% Gem Rates. These edges often came with some pretty severe factory chipping, but this card seemed to have a lot less of that than the others. I’d be aware of the front surface, this material scratches easily but these can still gem with light marks on the front.
For both this card and the Optic Downtown version, the proper top/bottom centering leaves more space at the top between the “Donruss” logo and the top edge, than the bottom between the name plate and the bottom edge. I’ve attached an extra image below with markings to illustrate.
5. Donruss Optic Downtown! #21
Values & Gem Rate
Raw Value | $800
PSA 10 Value | $1,950
PSA 9 Value | $850
Gem Rate | 39.7%
Profitability
Expected Value | $1023.60
Expected Profit | $223.60
Expected ROI | 27.95%
Notes: In general, Optic Downtown! graded a lot better than Donruss Downtown in 2024, but this card is an exception. I’d apply pretty much the same grading notes to this card as the Donruss card above, while noting that back edge issues are much less common on the Optics.